The Financial Bubble Experiment (FBE) aims at testing the following two hypotheses:
Hypothesis H1: Financial (and other) bubbles can be diagnosed in real-time before they end.
Hypothesis H2: The termination of financial (and other) bubbles can be bracketed using probabilistic forecasts, with a reliability better than chance.
In a medical context, H1 corresponds to the diagnostic of cancer and H2 to the forecast of remaining life expectancy.
Explanation of posts
For each candidate FBE asset, we will generate a simple .pdf figure that shows the date of our last observation and our forecast of the end of the bubble. We calculate the digital fingerprints (sha256sum and sha512sum) of each figure. The digital fingerprints are simply sequences of numbers and characters that are unique to a particular electronic file (in this case, the .pdf file). We post these sequences below for each FBE asset. On each post, there will also be a link to our "numly number", which is a commercial third party verification of the date and time of our posting. After the bubble has ended, we will post the original .pdf figure, which can be downloaded to use to calculate and check the digital fingerprints.